Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.095750 0.107119 0.118919 0.132050 0.146224 0.161032 0.177641
2024-10-20 0.075790 0.092250 0.110366 0.131647 0.155819 0.182284 0.213309
2024-10-27 0.062154 0.081714 0.104403 0.132326 0.165421 0.203053 0.248723
2024-11-03 0.056604 0.079349 0.106886 0.142052 0.185117 0.235497 0.298216
2024-11-10 0.048108 0.072015 0.102233 0.142243 0.192797 0.253530 0.330925
2024-11-17 0.042174 0.067057 0.099758 0.144454 0.202469 0.273748 0.366366
2024-11-24 0.036681 0.061909 0.096345 0.144857 0.209424 0.290402 0.397488
2024-12-01 0.034735 0.061454 0.099016 0.153167 0.226606 0.320123 0.445387
2024-12-08 0.033014 0.061063 0.101594 0.161270 0.243586 0.349839 0.493787
2024-12-15 0.029470 0.057441 0.099175 0.162121 0.250625 0.366606 0.525717
2024-12-22 0.025336 0.052375 0.094170 0.158878 0.251731 0.375367 0.547211
2024-12-29 0.023949 0.051656 0.095576 0.164828 0.265611 0.401272 0.591508
2025-01-05 0.021895 0.049732 0.095216 0.168500 0.276920 0.424710 0.634073
2025-01-12 0.019791 0.047495 0.094218 0.171195 0.286994 0.446853 0.675623
2025-01-19 0.017810 0.045227 0.092974 0.173394 0.296370 0.468234 0.716600
2025-01-26 0.017834 0.046806 0.098203 0.185868 0.321162 0.511542 0.788161
2025-02-02 0.015849 0.044132 0.095978 0.186367 0.328100 0.529899 0.825830
2025-02-09 0.014438 0.042428 0.095265 0.189179 0.338492 0.553247 0.870683
2025-02-16 0.012860 0.040125 0.093271 0.189720 0.345336 0.571561 0.908734
2025-02-23 0.012688 0.040937 0.096989 0.199873 0.367194 0.611836 0.978076
2025-03-02 0.012480 0.041631 0.100494 0.209735 0.388769 0.651987 1.047717
2025-03-09 0.011262 0.039736 0.098922 0.210772 0.396391 0.671739 1.088550
2025-03-16 0.009644 0.036569 0.094624 0.206834 0.395931 0.679504 1.112336